In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?,[2] Tetlock conducted a set of small scale forecasting tournaments between 1984 and 2003. The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers.

The tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, especially on longer–range forecasts three to five years out. Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. This work suggests that there is a perverse inverse relationship between fame and accuracy.

https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715

“People who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys who would have distributed their choices evenly over the options.”

Psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in Economics

https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555

EVERYBODY’S AN EXPERT

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/12/05/everybodys-an-expert

86% of investment managers stunk in 2014

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/investing/investing-active-versus-passive-funds/

Topic 3a)

Where do you want the future D&D to go

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